Carson Block

Well, the interesting thing, though, is AI is going to be deflationary.

So maybe it's a little bit – I'm stepping on a landmine if I talk about real rates, but nominal rates –

know will be i mean you know well below on the short you know short end well below 100 basis points i mean probably 0 to 10 bps um you know very quickly and there's going to be a lot of the going the governments are going to have to buy the central banks are going to have to buy you know the entire curve basically um to keep it really you know to keep rates you know long end rates low now

There will be fiscal issues.

I think fiscal is going to be a lot more interesting because the monetary playbook is well established.

You know, the United States has the blessing of being able to borrow in the currency that it prints.

And so I think, you know, QE forever is the future here, effectively.

But it'll be, you know, one of the third order effects and where I think it's also interesting to look at some trade setting up will be what happens in the U.S.

to state and local governments.

You know, they're I mean, especially if you look at the states that are going to have their tax bases, the hardest hit are the ones that are the most prolific issuers of debt.

So California, California is I mean, it's because so much of its tax base comes from income taxes, any individual income taxes anyway.

This is going to be, you know, like Armageddon for California from a fiscal perspective.

So.

How quickly does the federal government step in and bail out California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut?

Now, it kind of depends on who.

I mean, a big part depends on who's in the White House and which party controls Congress.

But, you know, from a fiscal perspective, you know, I think the U.S.

will be OK because of the potential for QE.

You know, Eurozone countries...

That's going to be very tough.