Casey Briggs

Now, why is the coalition preferencing One Nation?

I mean, in some respects, they're putting their money where their mouth is and saying, look, if we can't be elected ourselves, we'd like our next preferred party to be elected.

The question is then what politics is at play as well behind that and given how much they're attacking One Nation as well, you do have to think that there is an element of politics here that the Liberals think...

in order to win government again in the future, it's very hard to do that without a sort of win running through the seat of Farah.

And it might be easier for them to dislodge a One Nation incumbent versus an independent incumbent, because we've seen there's a history of people falling out with Pauline Hanson

You know, they may be betting on this One Nation surge not lasting forever.

You know, there are many reasons they might think that One Nation would be easier and easier opponents to take on in a few years' time versus the independent Michelle Milford.

So, Liberals preferencing One Nation is now consistent with what they did at the federal election last year, what they did in the South Australian election in March, what they seem to be thinking about doing in the Victorian election come November.

There seems to be the policy at the moment is that sort of by default, they will preference One Nation over other independents, over other parties.

And, you know, nothing seems to be changing that.

Well, it would tell us that One Nation truly has become a real political force in this country.

Now, it wouldn't necessarily tell us a whole lot about the results of the next election, but it would tell us they're definitely in the hunt to win a significant number of seats, especially Nationals-held seats, because they may be the ones that feel this the most.

You know, worth remembering, most of the seats around Farah, that touch Farah, are Nationals-held, not Liberal-held.

And so it would tell us quite a bit about the battle between One Nation and...

and the nationals, and it would prove that this polling surge we're seeing at the federal level, like we saw in South Australia, is real and is converting into votes, and they need to be taken seriously as a political force.

What it doesn't tell us is what do One Nation do with the power once they are elected, right?

We'll get to see over the next couple of years how the seven One Nation members of parliament in South Australia use their jobs, and do they stay together, and how effective are they as a parliamentary party?

This One Nation surge we've seen has happened in the course of less than a year and the next election is more than a year away.

So, you know, there is plenty of time for things to change still, but it's an important point in time marker.

It tells us something real about the support of One Nation and the populist right.