Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to 7am.
Chapter 2: What led to the by-election in Farrer?
The seat of Farah in New South Wales has been empty since the resignation of former Liberal leader Susan Lee. Today, a new member will be elected. And while the race is tight, One Nation's David Farley is ahead in the polls. He'll be picking up coalition preferences, but faces a strong challenge from independent Michelle Milthorpe. So will One Nation win its first ever federal lower house seat?
And if so, what will that signal for the future of conservative politics? Today, ABC election analyst Casey Briggs on the fight for Farrah.
Chapter 3: Who are the main candidates in the Farrer by-election?
It's Saturday, May 9. Casey, hello and welcome to 7am.
It's a pleasure to be with you on a very big day in politics.
Absolutely. So people in Farah are heading out to the polls this morning and this by-election, I mean, it's not going to change the balance of power right now, but obviously in the context of the rising popularity of One Nation, every by-election is important. Every by-election is being watched with a lot of intensity. So tell me about where things lie.
Yeah, we normally say the political consequences, the national implications of by-elections are pretty small, right? Because the government's not on the line. There are lots of different issues, lots of different candidates. In this case, Labor's not even contesting this election. So we're not getting the sort of true picture of the national support of any parties here.
But having said that, this is clearly a more important by-election than we've seen in a very long time in Australia because it's this important test to see how our voters, particularly on the conservative side of politics and particularly in regional parts of Australia, thinking about their options when it comes to voting. elections.
One Nation is desperate to prove itself after more than one in five people voted for One Nation in South Australia's election in March. They won four lower house seats in that election. One Nation's not desperate to prove that it can win a federal lower house seat. If it does, then this will be its first ever lower house electoral win at the federal level.
And so that would be a very significant moment. But it's such a sort of
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of One Nation's potential win?
complicated contests, Ruby, because you've got this independent, Michelle Milthorpe, taking a second crack at this seat. She came within about 6% of winning this seat, came closer to winning the seat than Labor has in 50 years.
I'm really passionate about regional equity and making sure that people who live in the country can stay there doing what they love the most.
She now would need to tap into the remaining, find more people to pull into her camp, while the Liberals and Nationals coalition partners are also going at this election and competing against each other. But everything that we're hearing out of the leadership of the two parties is sort of suggesting that they're feeling pretty pessimistic about their chances.
Can we talk more about the seat itself? Because the reason this by-election is happening in the first place is because of Susan Lee, the former Liberal leader, her resignation. She was the member for Farrah for 24 years. So traditionally, obviously, a very safe coalition seat.
Chapter 5: How does the electoral landscape affect conservative politics?
I mean, this is a seat that the Coalition's always held. It's never been anything other than a Liberal or a National seat since it's been created in 1949. And it's got some pretty big names associated with it. Obviously, Susan Lee, a former leader of the party, and her predecessor was Tim Fisher, who's a giant of the National's party.
So the Liberal Party feel, you know, some ownership over this part. of the country because it is quite literally where the Liberal Party of Australia was sort of founded, if you can point to any one place. But the other thing is, this is a huge seat, 126,000 kilometres. It's bigger than many small countries, bigger than South Korea, Iceland. It's almost the size of Greece.
And it means there are many, many local issues and sub-local issues that are at play here. And it means we may well see different candidates doing well in different parts of the seat.
And so what we might end up seeing is this dynamic where Michelle Milthorpe, as she did last time, is going to take a big chunk out of what would formerly have been the Liberal Party vote, especially in a city like Albury, where Michelle Milthorpe won last year.
But outside of Albury, One Nation might end up doing really well and clobbering what would otherwise have been, you would think, National's vote. And so it's this demonstration of the squeeze that you've got on both sides of the coalition of independents and, you know, more moderate voices on one flank trying to sort of peel away one part of the traditional liberal broad church.
while you've got One Nation and other sort of populist parties and candidates on the other flank trying to pull away other parts. And then you've got the coalition stuck in the middle trying to work out what to do with that. And that is a microcosm, a little mini diorama of what we're seeing nationally to different levels in different seats.
But we're getting a good sense of that national squeeze just playing out in this one seat. And that's what's making this election so interesting and so significant, because it may well inform the strategies that Matt Canavan, that Angus Taylor Pauline Hanson and One Nation and that the independence movement all take from here.
Can we talk a little more about One Nation's campaign? Because there's also been these signs that have appeared expressing support for Ben Robert Smith, who has, of course, been charged with war crimes. So what do you make of that?
Yeah, we're seeing an interesting, complicated mix of local issues. This is a local by-election where local people are campaigning to be a local member of parliament, overlain with lots of national issues as well and national polling surges. It's undeniable that a large part of One Nation's growth and support is not about the individual local candidates.
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