Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So we're not talking about the fuel.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
We're not talking about the heat exchanges.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
We're not talking about the cooling ponds or anything like that.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Just the amortized cost of the high-speed, high-temperature spinning components is $35 a megawatt hour.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Do you think the hyperscalers are being irrational, or do they have some reason?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Oh, to be clear, they don't care about cost.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
For cost of power, this seems extremely, like, it's very counterintuitive.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So for, like, Grandma Kettle in Pennsylvania, she's very sensitive to electricity cost, and we don't really want her to, like, suffer in her retirement from...
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
unaffordable electricity costs and having to sit there shivering.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
That's not the image that we want.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
At the same time, what is the economic value to you of using, I don't know, Claude or Grok or whatever you use on a monthly basis?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
A lot, yeah.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
But it's obviously much more than the subscription, but is it like 10 times more than the subscription maybe?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Okay, so let's say the subscription is on the order of 10 bucks, the value is on the order of 100 bucks, no, actually probably like 100 and 1,000.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
How much does it cost...
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
XAI or Anthropic or whatever to serve your usage.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And the cost of electricity is about 10% of that.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So it's like 10 cents of electricity is generating $1,000 worth of economic value.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So it's very obvious that Anthropic could be like, our electricity cost basis is increased by a factor of 100.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And now instead of paying 10 cents on your $100 bill for power, you're paying 10 bucks.