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Casey Handmer

👤 Speaker
748 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Well, I think everything before about 2030 is spoken for at this point.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Yeah, you could make more turbines.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

The funny thing is it's actually relatively expensive, I think, to spool up additional production of these turbines, for example.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So actually, here's one thing you have to grapple with sooner or later.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Conventional power generation is a steam engine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So you have some kind of chemical that you find inside the Earth that is out of chemical equilibrium with the atmosphere, and you burn it and it makes heat.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

It could be coal, it could be gas, oil, whatever.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

You're going to be the true birds and bees here.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Yeah, exactly.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

And it makes heat, and you boil water, and the water goes through some kind of mechanical contrivance that creates motion, and then that motion twists a magnet and generates an electrical field, which then pushes electrons down wires, which then push electrons through a series of gates that then approximate thinking.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

It's kind of complicated.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

But the key step in this, which is converting heat into electricity, in the most efficient, most common, and this is the same if it's a nuclear plant or a gas plant, combined cycle plant or a coal plant or whatever, is what's called a Brayton cycle.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

A jet engine on an aircraft is a Brayton cycle as well.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

And just any time you have a Brayton cycle with a bunch of Inconels spinning at high speed, it's just going to cost you a bunch of money.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Sorry, because it's inherently inefficient or what?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

I guess, yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

I don't actually know what the retail price is.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

I would suspect that if their price is flexible, it would have gone up a lot.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

But if I recall correctly, it's like $35 a megawatt hour is just the flag for cost for... How much, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

$35 a megawatt hour, just for the Brayton cycle, right?