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Casey Handmer

👤 Speaker
748 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

All the houses to all the power plants in some gigantic area divided by your marginal usage with all kinds of other complicated rules designed to make it fairer.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

And the problem that we see and the reason that PG&E here in California, for example, is perpetually on the brink of bankruptcy is that even though like the cost of an additional solar panel or additional wind turbine or additional gas turbine or whatever is relatively cheap.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

getting that power to your house is actually really expensive.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Why?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Because you've got, you know, generally like unionized labor that has to build and maintain power lines in areas that already have built up infrastructure.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So you have like multiple collisions, whether this is like a power pole on your own street or like building a new transmission line, which requires you to like eminent domain land.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So you're in court for like,

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Years and years and years spending public money litigating against other people who are also spending public money to litigate against you on behalf of other interest groups and so on and so forth.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

And then you've got wildfires and it's just like the poster child for Balmoral Costasies.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So one of the reasons that we're going to see large-scale pruning of these grids is that we just can't afford under our current regulatory regime to maintain.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

When you say pruning, are you just like everything will just go off-grid?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Well, I mean, it's fairly clear to me that for really large captive loads like our data centers or aluminum refineries or whatever, you're going to have to build your own power plant for them, which is how it used to work.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

If you had an aluminum plant back in the day, you would be building your own power plant for it as well.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

It would seem inefficient, but actually, if you are sensitive to the cost of power expressed maybe in supply elasticity or something like that, you just have to do it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

There's no two ways about it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Is it inefficient for the XIA Colossus data center to have its own captive power plant, which it does, on the backs of a bunch of trucks in their parking lot?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

No, it's not inefficient.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Well, I think we haven't completely exhausted the supply of the turbines relative to GPUs.