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Casey Handmer

👤 Speaker
748 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

The area of the panel is kind of the variable there.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So you can ask, well, what do you need in order to make the silicon?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Making solar arrays, making chips is a kind of multi-stage process, but basically you start off with silicates, which are rocks, ideally in a relatively pure form.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

You chemically reduce them.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

There's a couple of different processes that can do that, and then purify them into ideally like six nines of purity for solar array, maybe nine nines for really nice computers, silicon purity, and grow crystals, cut wafers, et cetera, et cetera.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So then the constraint is like, well, how quickly can you convert the crust into enough silicon to support silicon thought?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

What does the silicon ecosystem look like?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Well, it's pretty quick.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

If you're like one kilowatt per square meter and then you use that just to rip oxygens off the underlying dirt, it doesn't take all that long to... You need about 20 microns of silicon to make a solar PV array.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So...

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Yeah, actual dirt has plenty of silicon in it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So for example, setting up a brand new silicon refinery takes about 18 months.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

But that's just with the current technology, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

I actually think...

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

We may find ways.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

So one of the nice things is if you have infinite free solar power, approximately free solar power, you can revisit a bunch of legacy industrial processes that have been optimized for efficiency and say, well, what if we just use twice as much power and we just want to do them faster and cheaper, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Like less capex, less lead time, more power, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

Mm-hmm.