Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
They could tap into a local gas line.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And actually, if you can tap into a gas line, generally speaking, you can get enough power.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Like the energy transmission capacity of like your regular gas delivery pipelines is way, way higher than electricity overhead lines.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And it's easy to upgrade or whatever.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And so if you're in this situation right now, you say, well, are we constrained by our ability to go and rent gas turbines?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And no, they're not because there was enough available.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
once, maybe twice, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
But at a certain point, you realize, well, as you grow, you start to touch all these additional constraints.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
And some of those constraints include gas availability.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So there's a lot of chat about doing this in Pennsylvania, for example, where there's quite a lot of stranded gas in parts of Texas.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
But at the same time,
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
United States is gearing up in its ability to export natural gas overseas.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So the price will not be infinitely low forever.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
You start to run into constraints around turbine manufacturing rate, around transformer production rate, around grid capacity, and also kind of running into problems where the AIs and the humans who depend on legacy electricity production and delivery utilities are kind of competing with each other.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
We just saw this recent Ford auction in PJM result in
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
in kind of very high, unsustainably high prices for consumers who depend on cheap electricity to heat and cool their houses and have general prosperity.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
So if you kind of look far enough in the future, you say, well,
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
you can just turn up the dial arbitrarily high.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
You can say, well, we're going to put in a gigawatt a year.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Well, we can meet that constraint with gas turbines.