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Casey Newton

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1607 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And the way that they gauge this is with this, like, series of thermometers that are placed in various parts of Paris.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And that this insider trader allegedly, like, basically took a hairdryer or some other heating device and, like, held it next to one of these sensors.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Can you just tell me what happened here?

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

I fell for that one.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

So how did they actually tamper with the temperature sensor?

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Totally.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And I think that is ultimately bad for the markets themselves.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Market integrity is obviously very important.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

If people start to feel like they're competing on these markets with people who have access to like insider information, that's going to dissuade them from doing it.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

I mean, I was thinking about this after the Bad Bunny halftime show at the Super Bowl.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Where there were lots of prediction markets on what songs Bad Bunny would perform and various other things.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Celebrities will appear.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Celebrities will appear.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And there were active prediction markets.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And it turned out that like probably some of the people betting on those markets were like part of the halftime show or had watched the rehearsals or something.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And it just feels like after enough of these incidents, like you kind of have to be a sucker to participate in these markets without insider information.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Yes.

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

And, like, what happens if that goes away?

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

If just the normal people who just want to go online and gamble a little bit of money on something go away because they think it's rigged?

Hard Fork
Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

Me too.