Chris Wilson

John Cornyn is sitting around 31%, and Wesley Hunt, who I should disclose to your listeners, I have worked for the Wesley Hunt Super PAC, and he is at 17%.

And I will point out on that matter, and if it sounds like I'm a little bit bothered about it, that might not be unfair.

There has been more money spent against Wesley Hunt from a negative perspective than there has against Ken Paxton and John Cornyn combined.

And so we can talk about that if you want.

But having said that, so we go in.

The online conversation entered today clearly shows Paxton has the center of gravity in the race.

But what really matters as I look at this from an analytical perspective

is not just the percentages.

What the data shows is that the race has organized itself into two political coalitions amongst the Republican Party in Texas.

And this is a little bit of what I saw in 2012, not to go back too far, but with Ted Cruz in the primary against David Dewhurst, who the establishment supported, and there were other people in the race, obviously.

But we sort of saw the same thing emerge, but we didn't have this tool.

And so we kind of saw it after the fact, because polling is really a trailing indicator to these things.

So on one coalition, you see the grassroots populist wing of the Republican Party, which is driving the engagement around Paxton.

And then the other coalition is the institutional Republican support,

which has rallied around Cornyn.

Hunt has picked up voters who are looking for kind of a generational, I'll describe it scandal-free alternative, but those have dissipated over time as both the Paxton and the Cornyn campaign super PACs have done an effective job of attacking Wesley Hunt.

So what Texas voters are deciding today isn't just between three candidates,

I would submit it is deciding which coalition they want leading the party going forward.

Because in modern primaries, the candidate who controls the grassroots conversation has the structural advantage.

And I think that is absolutely essential as we move into runoffs and the general election in Texas.