Claudia Song

The idea here being that men will start pinching pennies by maybe not buying new skivvies leading up to a recession. So underwear sales, a leading indicator of recessions. Also, there is something called the Lipstick Index.

The idea here being that men will start pinching pennies by maybe not buying new skivvies leading up to a recession. So underwear sales, a leading indicator of recessions. Also, there is something called the Lipstick Index.

The idea here is that lipstick sales will actually go up as economic times get worse because people will trade in expensive luxury items like fancy handbags or dresses for cheaper luxury items like a tube of lipstick.

The idea here is that lipstick sales will actually go up as economic times get worse because people will trade in expensive luxury items like fancy handbags or dresses for cheaper luxury items like a tube of lipstick.

The idea here is that lipstick sales will actually go up as economic times get worse because people will trade in expensive luxury items like fancy handbags or dresses for cheaper luxury items like a tube of lipstick.

So Claudia doesn't discount the lipstick index specifically, but these alternative measures are perhaps not the most robust recession detecting instruments at our disposal.

So Claudia doesn't discount the lipstick index specifically, but these alternative measures are perhaps not the most robust recession detecting instruments at our disposal.

So Claudia doesn't discount the lipstick index specifically, but these alternative measures are perhaps not the most robust recession detecting instruments at our disposal.

This dates back to 2019. Claudia was working at the Fed back then and was asked to join a group tasked with writing a book of policy recommendations.

This dates back to 2019. Claudia was working at the Fed back then and was asked to join a group tasked with writing a book of policy recommendations.

This dates back to 2019. Claudia was working at the Fed back then and was asked to join a group tasked with writing a book of policy recommendations.

And so Claudia's job was simply to look for patterns in the data that could, in real time, say basically like, oh, oh wait, okay, if this particular whatever thing happens in the data, then we are almost certainly in a recession and that should be a sign to get people the help that they need.

And so Claudia's job was simply to look for patterns in the data that could, in real time, say basically like, oh, oh wait, okay, if this particular whatever thing happens in the data, then we are almost certainly in a recession and that should be a sign to get people the help that they need.

And so Claudia's job was simply to look for patterns in the data that could, in real time, say basically like, oh, oh wait, okay, if this particular whatever thing happens in the data, then we are almost certainly in a recession and that should be a sign to get people the help that they need.

Now, the technical rule specifications are when the average of the three month rolling unemployment rate goes up by at least point five percent compared to the 12 month low. But also, look, it is completely OK to just remember when unemployment goes up by a certain amount. That's fine.

Now, the technical rule specifications are when the average of the three month rolling unemployment rate goes up by at least point five percent compared to the 12 month low. But also, look, it is completely OK to just remember when unemployment goes up by a certain amount. That's fine.

Now, the technical rule specifications are when the average of the three month rolling unemployment rate goes up by at least point five percent compared to the 12 month low. But also, look, it is completely OK to just remember when unemployment goes up by a certain amount. That's fine.

Why were you panicking?

Why were you panicking?

Why were you panicking?