Cliff Taylor

So while oil isn't by any shout as big as it was 30, 40, 50 years ago in terms of businesses, electricity obviously is.

So that's the next...

the next round, if you like, and the implications of that.

So the risk is that energy costs and higher inflation spreads through the economy over the next few months.

The hope would be that, you know, there's some kind of a deal and the peak is a lot lower than it was back in 2022.

And while it's damaging and difficult and politically awkward, it's not, you know, it's not too bad.

We just don't know yet.

Conal McQuilla Yeah, glass half empty, glass half full.

I think the kind of numbers they come up with and are in line roughly with what the likes of the central bank and the Department of Finance have been saying, the economy will keep growing, but it will be growing at a slower rate than it would have been, and inflation will be higher.

And, of course, that feeds into people's incomes.

The risk is...

The terrible words, stagflation, you know, inflation and lower growth at the same time, which is particularly damaging.

It's damaging for investment markets because everything tends to be hit and it's hard to find a safe place.

And it's also damaging for households.

Fewer jobs in the economy, companies have less money to give wage increases, but yet inflation is going up and difficult politically for that reason as well.

But most of the forecasts, when you look at international forecasts, you look at, for example,

The indicators out of Germany in the last couple of days or the UK.

A lot of other countries are flirting with recession or worried about flirting with recession.

Most of the forecasts here, because of the momentum that we've had in the economy, are that growth will continue, albeit at a slower rate.

You would have to wonder if things got really bad on the oil front.