Coleman Church

Maybe we're so boxed that we got to run this experiment because it's our only way out.

And hopefully growth kicks in.

But it doesn't... The growth...

the the growth scenario the current growth scenario in the us is really hard to get your hands around um in one part because it's such a polarized economy people are calling it a k-shaped economy which i think is a pretty accurate term

K-shaped meaning the lower end is hurting and continues to hurt more, and the upper end gains and continues to gain more.

And we've seen throughout history that's not a tenable situation.

Yeah, it's a powder keg, ultimately.

Yeah.

And it's also extraordinarily difficult to get a real handle on where the numbers are because we're not releasing any numbers right now because of the government shutdown.

So the Fed's flying blind to an extent.

You can rely on certain private sector indicators that are kind of shockingly bad, frankly.

When you look at consumer loan defaults, credit card balances, credit card, the late credit card payments, auto loan defaults.

I think October was 185,000 announced private sector layoffs.

I think it worsened since 08.

So you have a situation where you've got to, you know, the U.S.

economy is at 70%, 69, 70% consumer led.

So if we're going to rely on the top 10% to continue to spend on, you know, Gucci bags and trips to St.

Barts, I just don't know how

How sustainable that is when the lower end is, you know, swapping out New York strip for, for pork loin and Walmart numbers are great because middle and upper middle class is shifting from the public's to Walmart shopping.

Like everyone, everyone's getting squeezed.