Dan Ivascyn

China sort of snuck up on the world, quite large, quite impactful, both in terms of trying to grow its own economy, but creating disruption all around the globe by exporting cheap products.

AI-related uncertainty.

We're just at a point where something did change a few years ago.

Politics began, in some sense, dominating traditional economic decisions.

like tariffs, as an example.

Tariffs aren't there just out of purely economic fairness or efficiency.

Absolutely right.

Absolutely right.

So that sort of set the stage in something we've talked about.

But when you look at the last...

12 months in particular, you have outright armed conflict now still in the Ukraine with a risk of escalation.

Actual war in the Middle East alongside the type of direct trade tensions, geopolitical tensions, extreme political uncertainty within this country.

You look over at the UK, similar dynamic.

You look at elections all around the world now that you tend to have candidates from extreme perspectives, typically battling out for control of countries.

There is very little true middle nowadays.

So our point with the piece is that you're starting with

Financial market valuations that are high.

You've had pretty good performance the last few years, yet you're dealing with a type of uncertainty now that most investors haven't had to deal with to the same degree.

So be real careful about being surprised.

And some of the surprises can be very good ones.