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Dan Ivascyn

πŸ‘€ Speaker
717 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

of higher quality risks that can actually generate similar returns to the real risky stuff if we continue to grow like we expect, but will provide some downside protection if you end up having a recession.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

So it's important just for a macroeconomic

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

perspective as long as that type of capital investment can be maintained it's going to create um a lot of positive momentum for economies making those investments uh it's got to be bullish i mean absolutely to have that much investment it's a lot of stimulant yeah it is it is and uh and and by the way that bears watching as well um you know over the short term you know all of these investments can be great for the economy it could lead to better productivity

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

lower inflation, but there very well could be a timing mismatch.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

And that's why, again, I think it's important to note that, you know, although our base case is that inflation, if we get the situation in Iran stabilized, inflation probably stays at this level and trends lower, there's some uncertainty.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

Just given the massive amount of materials you got to go find to make these investments.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

But generally speaking, positive.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

And then from a fixed income opportunity perspective, you know,

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

People need to raise money.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

For a while, these large hyperscalers, these big tech firms were generating so much cash flow, they never had to come to the bond market.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

Today- NVIDIA.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

NVIDIA came today.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

They don't even need the money and they're coming today, which again is a pretty strong forward indicator that even NVIDIA generating the most cash flow of all

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

is still looking to lock in, I saw it today, $20, $30 billion.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

Blue Owl was in the equity on that trade.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

Yeah, so look, the build-out's going to continue, and it's going to accelerate.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

It's going to accelerate from here.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

From here.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

Now, again, you're going to have, you're going to get a, you're seeing, even over the course of the last few months, and a signal like we're seeing from NVIDIA today that,

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

You know, capital investment targets have just gone higher, and we would expect them to remain higher, even going a bit higher from here.