Dan Ivascyn
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
No, I don't... Look, I think...
Don't care, I guess, would be the first point in the sense that- Wait, wait, wait.
Don't care about whether they speak or not?
As a market practitioner, I think that a lot of the speaking that's gone on is interesting, but not essential for the markets to have a good sense of what-
The crowd loves what you're saying.
Well, they're long.
And then, you know, even dots and things are the individual views, which, again, you know, views usually tend to be pretty good around policy when you're looking forward a month or two.
Yeah.
So I think it's a lot of noise.
And I think the markets will be just fine with β
more standard and targeted communication.
The other point is, you know, when we hear about Fed behind curves, ahead of curves, with just a few words, you can control market expectations.
And sometimes you don't need any words at all.
For example, we started this year, January and February, we had bonds rallying.
There was this mindset.
I think over the long run, it's a reasonable mindset that all this AI technology is going to put downward pressure on prices.
Disinflationary.
And then you had the war breakout in Iran.
It didn't take a single Fed speech to get the front end of the yield curve to go higher because now people knew inflation was higher in that it was less likely that you're going to cover it.
Correct.