Dan Ivascyn

Correct.

And then you see it with stocks.

Trump administration, Trump himself tweets about the potential for a deal.

Stocks rally.

News comes out that a deal is not going to get done.

They sell off.

By the way, bonds were moving in the same direction more recently.

So we do think also that a Fed –

has the ability to influence market expectations if they feel it's necessary with just a few targeted words.

And that by the time you're beyond the occasional speech or the occasional comment into massive discussions

We just think there's just rapidly diminishing.

Yeah, so we talked about this in our recent piece.

We think, you know, a Warsh Fed will be sufficiently independent in the areas that matter to the markets, which are funds policy and balance sheet.

There's still some uncertainty.

We think in a perfect world, you know, a Warsh Fed would like to get the balance sheet down quite a bit.

But I think that this is a Fed that, again, it's a committee, not a chair decision.

And I think there is the appreciation that with inflation elevated,

with the balance sheet down to a manageable level that it probably makes sense in the base case just to wait and see, don't rock the boat too much.

That's our best sense of this Fed.

Even the Powell Fed has been dovishly inclined, looking to get rates down ahead of inflation, starting the year with at least the hope of getting that funds rate down further.