Dan Pfeiffer

That is not true anymore.

In Nate Silver's polling model, the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump is two times the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump.

Republicans like Trump, they don't love him anymore.

And you can see that in the generic ballot, right?

In the CNN poll last month, I think you guys might have mentioned this on Tuesday, but

The number of Democrats who are highly interested in the election or motivated to vote is much higher than the number of Republicans.

And when you just ask among those who are highly interested in the election how they're going to vote in 2026, the generic ballot expands from five points to 16 points.

I mean, this is the makings of an absolute 1994, 2018, 2006 style political disaster.

And I left 2010 out for a reason.

I can explain if you're interested.

But it is like the conditions are there for just an absolute disaster for Trump and the Republicans this fall.

Because 2010, I think, is different because Obama was much, much more popular than any of these other presidents were at that point.

And you had 10% unemployment.

But the thing that really hurt Democrats was that we had had two consecutive wave elections.

And so there was this huge number of seats that were in enemy territory that the wave receded.

In 2010, and they all got left behind.

But yes, if you want to compare 2010, Trump's numbers are abysmal compared to Obama's at that point.

History would say that in the midterms, making it about Trump is sufficient.

Is enough.

The way I would think about this is a two-step process.