Dan Pickering

Let's say I'm trying to buy a million barrels of crude oil.

I had a contract from a producer in the Middle East, but that oil is tied up in the Strait of Hormuz.

So I need oil now on the spot market for a lot more money.

Joe DeLora is with Rabobank.

well above the on-paper prices being set by Wall Street types.

It's this tension between what financial markets think is going to happen with the war versus what it's like to actually get oil in the physical market today.

Dan Pickering is with Pickering Energy Partners.

He expects that futures prices will have to come up to reflect that crude reality.

And the reality of the physical market is already starting to hit, says Tom Sang with Texas Christian University.

Just look at oil price spikes this week.

But are financial markets pessimistic enough?

Well, there's always a chance this war could end tomorrow.

Tseng thinks that with summer travel season coming up, prices should probably be even higher than markets are expecting.

I'm Elizabeth Troval for Marketplace.

Yeah, you know, at the time, it feels like now 100 years ago.

But what we got right at the time was that the volatility associated with these type of rapid swings in our trade policy was going to have very significant economic consequences.

And these are, in fact, the most inflationary policies that have been pursued in our lifetimes.

And that is what is showing up on the data.

We've all kind of like lived through it.

You see tariff pauses go into place.