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Marketplace

Growing GDP, thank GPT

30 Apr 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What economic data is highlighted at the beginning of the episode?

0.031 - 8.419 Kai Risdahl

Storms, floods, and fires are ever more extreme. And yet, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is fighting for its life.

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8.619 - 18.068 Unknown

I've never been a big fan of FEMA. FEMA's a disaster. FEMA's a dirty word. People are waking up in droves to the FEMA camps. Can the agency survive the stories that have been told about it?

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18.288 - 59.575 Kai Risdahl

And can we survive without FEMA? American Emergency, the movement to kill FEMA, is a brand new series from WNYC's On The Media. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. We'll do some oil, we'll do some data, and we'll wrap it all up with a nice bowl of beans. From American Public Media, this is Market Class. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Rizal. It is Thursday today, the last day of April.

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59.595 - 81.979 Kai Risdahl

Good as always to have you along, everybody. There is some economic data with which we could begin today, and we will get to it in a minute, I promise. But we're going to start instead with a number. That number is 126.41. The proper denomination is U.S. dollars. The commodity associated with it

0

81.959 - 93.912 Kai Risdahl

is Brent North Sea Crude, which in the wee small hours of this morning hit the aforementioned $126.41 a barrel. That's June delivery, which is to say the future's price.

94.793 - 108.608 Kai Risdahl

Now, as we sit here at the two-month mark of the most severe energy shock the world has ever seen, as every day countries are chewing their way through their inventories and ever less oil is being produced and delivered, the competition for those barrels gets steeper and steeper.

108.588 - 127.238 Kai Risdahl

And that is showing up in futures market, yes, which I just talked about, but more significantly in the physical market for oil, the very high price you will pay to get a barrel delivered to you today. The thing is, as Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval reports, that spot price isn't what financial markets tell us it should be.

127.606 - 144.548 Dan Pickering

Let's say I'm trying to buy a million barrels of crude oil. I had a contract from a producer in the Middle East, but that oil is tied up in the Strait of Hormuz. So I need oil now on the spot market for a lot more money. Joe DeLora is with Rabobank.

145.149 - 148.453 Michael Pierce

The physical market is skyrocketing.

Chapter 2: How is artificial intelligence influencing GDP growth?

355.52 - 368.138 Kai Risdahl

in the last three months of last year. Part of it was the pickup and the end of the longest ever government shutdown. Daniel Ackerman has the rest of it. A big reason for last quarter's GDP growth was, you guessed it.

0

368.618 - 371.943 Ishwar Prasad

It looks like a lot of that is AI-related investment.

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372.224 - 376.189 Michael Pierce

Incredibly strong growth in anything that is AI-related.

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376.449 - 383.94 Shannon Grein

You have the spending on actual equipment, like data centers showing up in there, and then you have businesses investing in different types of AI software.

0

384.292 - 399.447 Kai Risdahl

That was Ishwar Prasad of Cornell, Michael Pierce of Oxford Economics, and Shannon Grein of Wells Fargo, all in agreement that AI is pretty much driving economic growth right now. Pierce says it's not just that businesses are pouring money into AI.

399.967 - 402.99 Michael Pierce

But also the boost that that's providing to the stock market.

403.59 - 410.417 Kai Risdahl

Pierce says that strong stock market is in turn propping up the top contributor to the US economy, consumer spending.

410.6 - 417.42 Michael Pierce

even though it's going to higher income, older, wealthier households, they're responsible for a lot of the spending in the economy.

417.856 - 427.291 Kai Risdahl

Pierce says some of the AI excitement is ironically limiting economic growth because U.S. firms are sending money abroad to import chips and computer parts.

Chapter 3: What are the implications of rising crude oil prices on the economy?

450.925 - 461.278 Kai Risdahl

Construction is happening. Equipment is being used. And Kate says companies like the chipmaker NVIDIA are making revenue from sales, not just relying on investment.

0

461.838 - 469.007 Michael Pierce

This is not pets.com that never made a single dollar and always ran negative profits.

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468.987 - 476.774 Kai Risdahl

Looking ahead, Shannon Grein of Wells Fargo says she'll be watching consumer spending for hints of where GDP might be headed later this year.

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477.295 - 485.662 Shannon Grein

Just in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Iran, sustained inflationary pressure, the slowing labor market, all of these sort of headwinds that are facing the consumer sector.

0

485.702 - 527.622 Kai Risdahl

Today's report showed a slowdown in consumer spending on goods. If it continues, Grein says that could be a drag on economic growth. I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace. As we are wont to do when we get a whole lot of macroeconomic data, as we did today, the micro is where we turn. We've called two of our retail regulars to get their take on things from the other side of the cash register.

528.143 - 532.968 Kai Risdahl

First up, Kalina Bruce. She runs Noir Lux Candle Bar up in Seattle, Washington.

532.988 - 561.684 Kalina Bruce

Business is pretty steady. We've definitely been feeling the shifts in consumer spending over the past year. And so I think that shows up in like a slight dip in overall sales. But We're kind of leaning into our existing partnerships and more community driven events. We recently just opened a pop-up space in downtown Seattle. FIFA will be in Seattle in a couple of weeks.

561.865 - 579.648 Kalina Bruce

And so there's a program called Seattle Restored, which is really focused on activating a lot of the empty retail spaces in downtown Seattle. And so as participants of that program, we have a new space for six months. We're really hoping to see an increase in spending while FIFA is here.

579.688 - 609.947 Kalina Bruce

But also if this particular location works out, we're hoping to explore a long term kind of permanent space here. Our costs continue to increase over several areas, particularly as it relates to our cost of goods, our raw materials, shipping. We're always trying to source locally to kind of help offset some of the cost increases.

Chapter 4: How is the airline industry facing a technician shortage?

827.537 - 832.284 Alison Pohle

If you're working at a smaller place, you're probably not going to be making $81,000 right out of school.

0

833.906 - 851.222 Kai Risdahl

Right. You mentioned that there's a retirement cliff coming here. I'm obliged to note that if I could sort of torture this metaphor here for a minute, that much as the people working on the planes are not young, the planes themselves are not young. They need more maintenance and there's a huge backlog of new plane orders.

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851.242 - 864.338 Alison Pohle

That's right. And so that means the work is mounting. So there's a lot of demand. So airlines have ordered more planes, but because they're not being delivered, they're holding on to the older planes for longer.

0

864.993 - 877.405 Kai Risdahl

What's your sense of, you know, with this retirement cliff coming and with the long train up time that it takes, it's going to be a while before airlines and aviation in general get out of this jam.

0

877.845 - 902.014 Alison Pohle

That's right. And next year, 2027, is predicted to be the worst in terms of the shortage. So in North America, there will be about 7000 fewer certificated mechanics than are needed. Hmm. So it's going to take a while. And there are, as we mentioned, lots of things in progress, but you can't speed it up to the point where people aren't getting their training.

902.034 - 915.115 Alison Pohle

And you're also losing, as these retirements happen, you are losing some of the most experienced people who have worked with these planes for the longest. So more people are coming in, but it does take a while to get better at the job, even once you've been hired. Right.

915.584 - 922.102 Kai Risdahl

We should say here on the way out that for those of you who are nervous flyers, commercial aviation is still incredibly safe. Just want to point that out.

922.222 - 923.726 Alison Pohle

It's incredibly safe.

923.746 - 926.394 Kai Risdahl

That's right. Alison Foley with The Wall Street Journal. Alison, thanks a lot.

Chapter 5: What challenges are retailers facing in the current economic climate?

1001.38 - 1017.191 Kai Risdahl

Bonds up. Yield on the 10-year T-note down 4.37 percent. You're listening to Marketplace. Storms, floods, and fires are ever more extreme. And yet, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is fighting for its life.

0

1017.211 - 1023.456 Unknown

I've never been a big fan of FEMA. FEMA's a disaster. FEMA's a dirty word. People are waking up in droves to the FEMA camps.

0

1023.476 - 1046.826 Kai Risdahl

Can the agency survive the stories that have been told about it? And can we survive without FEMA? American Emergency, the movement to kill FEMA, is a brand new series from WNYC's On The Media. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. Back to the retail counter we go, where Dylan Demery is the owner of She's Fly.

0

1047.248 - 1050.098 Kai Risdahl

That's a women's fly fishing company in Fort Collins, Colorado.

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1050.449 - 1075.005 Kalina Bruce

So the retail side of the business this year has been very slow. We've seen a definite drop year over year. I haven't seen as much spending on gear or even just She's Fly merchandise this year at all. I'm seeing the bulk of our sales are coming in the form of retreats. So people are booking retreats, which is nice.

1076.234 - 1109.871 Kalina Bruce

About monthly, I will go through our store, our online store, and make sure that the prices we have are what the suppliers are selling for. Actually, the waiters went up, I'd say probably 20%, and then fly rods went up a bit. But that could be attributed to a new design with the fly rod maker we're working with. fly fishing gear can get very, very, very expensive very quickly.

1109.891 - 1138.637 Kalina Bruce

And we try to stay in that mid or lower range because so many of our clients are beginners. And we always say the fish don't care what rod you use when you get out there. The things that keep me up at night are lately, it's been the problem with the airlines and jet fuel. So that is going to impact our Because they are kind of all over the country.

1138.677 - 1163.766 Kalina Bruce

We have a retreat in New York in September and we haven't bought our tickets yet because we just don't know what it's going to look like. We also usually would fly in and out of Bozeman and Montana for that retreat. But... We are not sure if the flights are going to be affordable enough. And so now we're considering driving. And then with the gas prices to drive up there.

1163.806 - 1178.331 Kalina Bruce

So we're just saying, what's going to be the lesser of two evils here? Do we drive? Do we fly? How's that going to work out for the business? So, yeah, it's been definitely a curveball. We didn't expect. I did not expect that this year.

Chapter 6: What is the significance of the bean craze in today's market?

1376.448 - 1398.28 Jillian Deutsch

Yes, exactly. I was supposed to say, actually, the cottage cheese thing is still going very strong, at least in the UK. But beans are definitely part of that. People are really trying to find ways of getting lots of their nutrients. Even high-protein yogurts are selling like crazy. And a lot of backlash against processed foods. And so I think people are just really excited about things that are

0

1398.479 - 1416.178 Jillian Deutsch

much more just pure nutrients and things that are easy to cook. I should say also convenience is a huge factor here too. Like one of the trends you see in the US is a lot of people who want nicely seasoned beans that they can just open a packet or open a can and just heat them up and go. And so that is something that's taking off a lot more in the U.S. too.

0

1416.238 - 1418.703 Jillian Deutsch

So that convenience factor is a major part of this.

0

1419.143 - 1435.354 Kai Risdahl

I will say, scoff though I did as I dug into your piece, because I was like, come on, beans. There was a recipe there. I forget who the TikToker was who did it, but it looked pretty appetizing. It was this pesto-y kind of thing with some burrata on top. I mean, you know, I would try that.

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1435.958 - 1441.607 Jillian Deutsch

Yeah, yeah, that's Natalia Rudin, who is, you might know her better from her handle, Nat's Nourishments.

Chapter 7: How are consumer preferences shifting towards beans?

1441.968 - 1457.936 Jillian Deutsch

And she kind of took off because she used to be a personal chef and she would do these series about, you know, what she would cook when she got home. And she's made beans look a lot more appetizing. And Bull Bean Company, part of their whole mantra as well is trying to teach people how to cook with beans. So they have lots of great recipes.

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1458.116 - 1466.231 Jillian Deutsch

I did like a cacio e pepe bean recipe, which was actually delicious. So I think there are ways of making the very humble bean a lot more interesting.

0

1466.251 - 1468.716 Kai Risdahl

So you're a believer, if you will.

0

1469.422 - 1483.862 Jillian Deutsch

They converted me. I am now one of those people who is spending more than three pounds on jar beans, unfortunately. But they're very, very good. And actually, my parents are coming from the U.S. and they are bringing a bunch of other bean products that I want to try from America. So it's happened. They've got me.

0

1484.122 - 1486.906 Kai Risdahl

You're all in. Jillian Deutsch at Bloomberg in London. Jillian, thanks a lot.

1487.527 - 1488.949 Jillian Deutsch

Thank you so much for your time. Appreciate it.

1504.977 - 1526.365 Kai Risdahl

This final note on the way out today in which we started with a number, we will end with a number 100.2. That is the percentage of our total national debt held by the public as compared to the total size of the U.S. economy. That is, we owe more than the whole economy is worth. The data came today from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

1526.405 - 1543.467 Kai Risdahl

There are some technical bits of that that we honestly don't have time for, and there is nothing magic about 100% versus 99%. But here's a fact. The more we owe, the more we spend on the interest on what we owe, which means there's less to spend on everything else.

1543.727 - 1566.786 Kai Risdahl

Also, and not for nothing, I always find it curious that when the federal debt and deficit are mentioned, it's only spending cuts that are talked about, not, shall we say, the revenue side of that equation. Our daily production team includes Livvy Burdett, Andy Corbin, Maria Hollenhorst, Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry, Michaela San, and Sophia Terenzio. Will Story is the supervising senior producer.

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