Daniel Kahneman
👤 PersonAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Say, I will not start the conversation from that number.
It's an absurd number.
I don't want to.
Let's erase that number.
So that's something that you can improve if you recognize it.
I think people are aware of the fact that you shouldn't make a decision about road safety within a short interval of a terrible accident.
So you should allow things to settle down and cool down.
There is a more subtle error and harder to fix, but that the best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression.
Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive.
It doesn't recognize regression to the mean.
But statistics is statistics.
In statistics, things are less extreme.
Should I give you my favorite example of a bias?
Yeah, please.
I have been unable to think of a better one.
But the story is about Julie.
That's part of the story.
That's her name.
She is a graduating senior at university.
And I'll tell you one fact about her that she read fluently when she was four, but she's a GPA.