Daniel Kahneman

And if possible, if you can have them compare

share the same frame of reference with other underwriters, you're going to cut down on the noise.

Oh, that's a clever idea, yeah.

Controlling the scale.

And that exists in human resources.

Where performance evaluation, which is one of the scandals of modern commerce, how difficult it is, but performance evaluation, they have the thing that's called frame of reference training, which is teaching people how to use the scale.

There's a lot of variability in the scale.

And a part of what the superforecasters do, they make judgments in probability units, and they teach them to use the probability scale.

So learning the scale is a very important aspect of reducing noise.

Oh, a lot.

Yeah.

There's been a replication crisis in psychology.

And some of the stuff that I really believed in when I wrote Thinking Fast and Slow, some of the evidence has been discredited.

So I've had to change my mind.

What are the, what's the biggest?

Some of the sexiest stuff.

Priming and unconscious priming.

And so this hasn't held up in replication.

And I believed it and I wrote it as if it were true because, you know, the evidence suggested it.

And in fact, I thought that you had to accept it because that was published evidence.