Daniel Kahneman

And I should have, I blame myself for having been a bit gullible.

That is, I should have known that you can publish things even if they're not true.

But I just didn't think that through.

So I changed my mind.

I'm now much more cautious about spectacular findings.

I mean, very recently,

I think I have a theory about why psychologists are prone, or social scientists generally, are prone to exaggerate, to be overconfident about their hypotheses.

So I've done quite a bit of learning.

What's the theory?

The theory, one element of the theory,

is that all these hypotheses are true.

In what sense?

That, you know, if I... There's a famous study that you mention wrinkles to people, and then you measure the speed at which they walk, and they walk more slowly.

Turns out that hasn't held up in replication, which is very painful.

It's one of the favorite studies.

But...

Actually, you know that if you mention wrinkle and it's going to have any effect on the speed of walking, it's not going to make people faster.

If it has any influence, it's going to make them slower.

So directionally, all these hypotheses are true.

but what there is is what people don't see is that the huge number of factors that determine the speed at which individuals walk and the differences