Daniel Kokotajlo

Or the fact that they're comparable to maybe the size of the key researcher population of the world or something.

I don't think a million is... I think there's more than a million researchers in the world, but... Well, but it's very heavy-tailed.

That's right.

But it's not clear to me that most of the new stuff that is developed is a result of this researcher population.

I mean, there's just, like, so many examples in the history of science where...

a lot of growth or productivity improvements is just the result of... How do you count the guy at the TSMC process who figures out a different way to... I actually argued with Daniel about this recently, about one interesting case that I can go over.

I'm assuming the bombers were just much...

less sophisticated than the kind of humanoid robots.

Maybe to give one hypothetical here.

Right now, let's just take biomedicine as an example.

One of the fields you'd want to accelerate, and whenever these CEOs get on podcasts, they're often talking about curing cancer and so forth.

And it seems like a big thing these frontier biomedical research facilities are excited about is the virtual cell.

Now, the virtual cell is some, you know, it takes like a tremendous amount of compute, I assume, to train these DNA foundation models and to do all the other computation necessary to simulate a virtual cell.

if it is the case that the cure for Alzheimer's and cancer and so forth is bottlenecked by the virtual cell, it's not clear if you had a million super intelligences in the 60s and you asked them, cure cancer for me, they would just have to

solve making GPUs at scale, which would require solving all kinds of interesting physics and chemistry problems, uh, material science problems, building process, uh, building fabric, you know, fabs for computer of computing.

And then like going through 40 years of, um, making more and more efficient fabs that can make, you know, do all of Moore's law from scratch.

Uh,

And that's just like one technology.

And it just seems like you just need this broad scale.

The entire economy needs to be upgraded for you to cure cancer in the 60s, right?