Daniel Kokotajlo

Just because you need the GPUs to do the virtual cell, assuming that's the bottleneck.

The super intelligence is not even that smart.

It just yells at every single worker.

Yeah, I mean, that's...

I think both of those examples don't work in your favor.

I think the China example is, like, the China growth miracle could not have occurred if not for their ability to copy technology from the West.

And I don't think there's a world in which they just, I mean, you know, China has a lot of really smart people.

It's a big country in general.

Even then, I think they couldn't have just, like, divined how to make airplanes after becoming a communist...

hell basket right it was just like there's the AIs cannot just like copy nanobots from aliens it's got to make them from scratch and then just on the Elon example it took them two decades of like countless experiments failing in weird ways you would not have expected um uh

And still, it's like, you know, rocketry we've been doing since the 60s, but maybe actually World War II.

And then just getting from a small rocket to a really big rocket took two decades of all kinds of weird experiments, even with the smartest and most competent people in the world.

I think I would probably need to sit down and just think about the numbers, but maybe 2040 or something like that.

Yeah.

Interesting.

And then you might argue, well, robots is more a software problem at this point.

And if like, if there isn't like, you don't need to like invent some new hardware.

It's so hard to reason about because if you asked if Constantine or somebody in like 400, 500 was like, I want the Roman Empire to have the Industrial Revolution.

And somehow he figured out that like you need mechanized machines to do that.

And he's like, let's mechanize.