Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
It's like, what's the next step?
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
It's like...
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Dude, that's a lot, yeah.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
And we haven't really got into this because you're using the quote-unquote more conservative vision where it's not like godlike intelligence.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
We're still using...
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
the conceptual handles we would have for humans.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
But I probably do... I think I would rather have humans go back with their big picture understanding of what has happened over the last 2,000 years.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Like, me having seen everything rather than a super intelligence who knows nothing, but is just, like, in the Roman economy and they're, like, 1,000 next to this economy somehow.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Like, I think just knowing generally how things took off, knowing basically steam engine, dot, dot, dot, railroads, blah, blah, blah, is more valuable than...
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
a superintelligence.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
This is an interesting rabbit hole, so let's stick with it, actually, before we get back to the intelligence explosion.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
I actually don't know if... I think we're treating this really like all these technologies come out of this 1% of the economy that is research.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
And right now, there's like a million superstar researchers, and instead of that, we'll have the superintelligence is doing that.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
And my model is much more...
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
you know, Nukem and Watt were just like fucking around.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
They didn't have this like, it's just like in human history, there's no clear examples of people being like, here's the roadmap and then we're going to work backwards from that to design the steam engine because this unlocks the industrial revolution.
Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
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Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
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Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
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Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
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