Daniel Kokotajlo

speaker

687 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 19 Jun

Daniel Kokotajlo’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

Hard Fork · ‘Hard Fork’ Live, Part 3: Differing Visions of an A.I. Future · 19 Jun 2026 podcast

And then even though that's not quite there, even a 99% automation would speed things up quite a lot, which would then allow you to do a decade or two decades worth of research in a year, perhaps.

So those are, I think, my two arguments for why it seems like we're bringing it pretty close.

Another argument, a sort of meta argument that I would make is that

I feel like there's been a long history of AI scientists and other commenters making claims about what AIs can't do, like various walls that deep learning is going to hit.

And they just keep getting smashed through almost as soon as people are making the claims.

And I just feel like that's probably what's going to happen with data efficiency, for example.

Well, I guess I'll go first.

It's been a leap of faith, faith in humanity.

At OpenAI, I was doing scenario forecasts like this too, much smaller, low effort versions.

But they were just for internal use only.

I wouldn't be allowed to publish them.

And it seemed to me that the world really needs to wake up to AI and what's coming and start thinking more seriously about it.

And, you know, the discourse is not necessarily so great.

And there's lots of terrible people and lots of terrible takes.

And, you know, it's very chaotic and confusing.

But we at AI Futures Project are sort of making a bet that, like,

Well, we should say what we think is coming.

We should be clear.

We should be articulate.

We should explain our reasoning.

Showing 41–60 of 687 · page 3 of 35