Daniel Kokotajlo

And then Daniel is the director of the AI Futures Project.

And you have both just launched today something called AI 2027.

Yes.

So what is this?

Okay, and then Scott, how did you get involved in this project?

I've probably changed my mind towards, against, towards, against intelligence explosion, like three, four times in the conversations I've had in the lead up, in talking to you, and then trying to come up with a rebuttal or something.

Yeah.

Yeah.

OK, now let's talk about this new forecast.

Let's start because you do a month by month analysis of what's going to happen from here.

So what is it that you expect in mid 2025 and end of 2025 in this forecast?

Computer use is totally solved, partially solved.

How good is computer use by the end of 2025?

If I want to organize a happy hour in my office, I don't know, that's like what, a 30-minute task?

What fraction of that is, it's got to invite the right people, it's got to book the right door dash or something.

What fraction of that is it able to do?

One observation I have is, you could have told a story in 2021, once ChaiGPD comes out.

I think I had friends who are like, you know, incredible AI thinkers who are like, look, you've got the coding agent now.

It's been cracked.

Now the GPT-4 will go around and they'll do all this engineering and we do this all on top.