Daniel Kokotajlo

Let's start because you do a month by month analysis of what's going to happen from here.

So what is it that you expect in mid 2025 and end of 2025 in this forecast?

Computer use is totally solved, partially solved.

How good is computer use by the end of 2025?

If I want to organize a happy hour in my office, I don't know, that's like what, a 30-minute task?

What fraction of that is, it's got to invite the right people, it's got to book the right door dash or something.

What fraction of that is it able to do?

One observation I have is, you could have told a story in 2021, once ChaiGPD comes out.

I think I had friends who are like, you know, incredible AI thinkers who are like, look, you've got the coding agent now.

It's been cracked.

Now the GPT-4 will go around and they'll do all this engineering and we do this all on top.

We can totally scale up the system 100x.

And

Every single layer of this has been much harder than the strongest optimist expected.

It seems like there have been significant difficulties in increasing the pre-training size, at least from rumors about failed training runs or underwhelming training runs at labs.

It seems like building up these RL... I'm, like, total outside view.

I know nothing about the actual engineering involved here.

But just from an outside view, it seems like building up the O1, like, RL clearly took much... at least two years after GPT-4 was released.

And these things are also – their economic impact and the kinds of things you would immediately expect based on benchmarks for them to be especially capable at isn't overwhelming.

Like the call center of workers haven't been fired yet.