Daniel Kokotajlo

And why aren't they able to use their general intelligence to use this asymmetric advantage to some enormous capability overhang?

Now, you could infer that same statement by saying, okay, well, once they do have that general intelligence, they will be able to use their asymmetric advantage to make all these enormous gains that humans are, in principle, less capable of, right?

So basically, if you do subscribe to this view that AIs could do all these things if only they had general intelligence, you're going to be like, well, once we actually do get the AGI, it's actually going to be totally transformative because they will have all of human knowledge memorized and they can use that to make all these connections.

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All right, back to Scott and Daniel.

So if I look back at AI progress in the past, if we were back in, say, 2017,

Yeah, suppose we had these super home encoders in 2017.

The amount of progress we've made since then, so where we are currently in 2025, by when could we have had that instead?

That seems plausible to me.