Daniel Kokotajlo

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All right, back to Scott and Daniel.

So if I look back at AI progress in the past, if we were back in, say, 2017,

Yeah, suppose we had these super home encoders in 2017.

The amount of progress we've made since then, so where we are currently in 2025, by when could we have had that instead?

That seems plausible to me.

You have a 5x at some point, and then...

Dot, dot, dot, you have 1,000x AI progress within the matter of a year.

Maybe that's the part I'm like, wait, how did that happen exactly?

Yeah.

So what's the story there?

So maybe the big picture thing I have with the intelligence explosion is we can go through the specific arguments about how much will the automated coder be able to do and how much will the superhuman AI coder be able to do.

But on priors, it's just like such a wild thing to expect.

And so...

Before we get into all the specific arguments, maybe you can just address this idea that, like, why not just start off with, like, 0.01% chance this thing might happen, and then you need extremely, extremely strong evidence that it will before making that your moral view.

I mean, you are saying that this transition, these previous transitions have been smoother than the one you're anticipating, right?

You guys are the conservative crowd, you know.