Dario Amodei
speaker
1,812 appearances
10 recordings
8 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard 12 Jun
Dario Amodei’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 8 in all, peaking in Apr 2026 with 3.
Appearances
We are now at the point where AI models are beginning to make progress in solving unsolved mathematical problems and are good enough at coding that some of the strongest engineers I've ever met are now handing over almost all their coding to AI.
Three years ago, AI struggled with elementary school arithmetic problems and was barely capable of writing a single line of code.
Similar rates of improvement are occurring across biological science, finance, physics, and a variety of agentic tasks.
If the exponential continues, which is not certain but now has a decade-long track record supporting it, then it cannot possibly be more than a few years before AI is better than humans at essentially everything.
In fact, that picture probably underestimates the likely rate of progress.
Because AI is now writing much of the code at Anthropic, it is already substantially accelerating the rate of our progress in building the next generation of AI systems.
This feedback loop is gathering steam month by month and may be only one to two years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next.
This loop has already started and will accelerate rapidly in the coming months and years.
Watching the last five years of progress from within Anthropic and looking at how even the next few months of models are shaping up, I can feel the pace of progress and the clock ticking down.
In this essay, I'll assume that this intuition is at least somewhat correct, not that powerful AI is definitely coming in one to two years.
But that there's a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.
As with machines of loving grace, taking this premise seriously can lead to some surprising and eerie conclusions.
While in Machines of Loving Grace I focused on the positive implications of this premise, here the things I talk about will be disquieting.
They are conclusions that we may not want to confront, but that does not make them any less real.
I can only say that I am focused day and night on how to steer us away from these negative outcomes and towards the positive ones, and in this essay I talk in great detail about how best to do so.
I think the best way to get a handle on the risks of AI is to ask the following question.
Suppose a literal country of geniuses were to materialize somewhere in the world in roughly 2027.
Imagine, say, 50 million people, all of whom are much more capable than any Nobel Prize winner, statesman, or technologist.
The analogy is not perfect because these geniuses could have an extremely wide range of motivations and behavior from completely pliant and obedient to strange and alien in their motivations.
But sticking with the analogy for now, suppose you were the national security advisor of a major state responsible for assessing and responding to the situation.
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