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Darren Farber

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
380 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

You're going to try and just mirror match it. So there are a lot of natural one-of-one suppliers to the department by virtue of who the customer is. And so our analysis of the factory is there's no alternative. There are ways for us to improve it. Technologically, the business is unbelievable. It's a national asset because of the quality of what it produces.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

You're going to try and just mirror match it. So there are a lot of natural one-of-one suppliers to the department by virtue of who the customer is. And so our analysis of the factory is there's no alternative. There are ways for us to improve it. Technologically, the business is unbelievable. It's a national asset because of the quality of what it produces.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

So if the Pentagon's own number was between two and two and a half billion, so I'm saying to myself, I can buy it for a very small fraction of that value. It is guaranteed to make money as an annuity. It can hold an enormous quantum of leverage because it's a 10-year set of take-or-pay contracts, getting paid no matter what.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

So if the Pentagon's own number was between two and two and a half billion, so I'm saying to myself, I can buy it for a very small fraction of that value. It is guaranteed to make money as an annuity. It can hold an enormous quantum of leverage because it's a 10-year set of take-or-pay contracts, getting paid no matter what.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And, oh, by the way, there's an embedded option value in this in that if all of a sudden it gets more dangerous... consumption goes way up. You can't build a financial model that has a toggle in it called war, base case, upside, war. No one does that. But that's actually a huge benefit to us because look, the world is dangerous.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And, oh, by the way, there's an embedded option value in this in that if all of a sudden it gets more dangerous... consumption goes way up. You can't build a financial model that has a toggle in it called war, base case, upside, war. No one does that. But that's actually a huge benefit to us because look, the world is dangerous.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

We know something like that will happen and we don't model it in, but we tell ourselves we're getting an option value in here that we know exists, but you can't logically price it. And so seller can't expect you to pay for it. But you know, if you have duration, No, world's pretty dangerous place. It seems like every couple of years something happens. You're going to get paid for that as well.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

We know something like that will happen and we don't model it in, but we tell ourselves we're getting an option value in here that we know exists, but you can't logically price it. And so seller can't expect you to pay for it. But you know, if you have duration, No, world's pretty dangerous place. It seems like every couple of years something happens. You're going to get paid for that as well.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so that coupled with things like commercial off the shelf, we made sure when we bought that business, we started selling commercially. To what? To commercial space launch, to next generation suppliers. What happened there? Ultimately, the value was recognized and we sold it probably too early. We always sell too early is my refrain.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so that coupled with things like commercial off the shelf, we made sure when we bought that business, we started selling commercially. To what? To commercial space launch, to next generation suppliers. What happened there? Ultimately, the value was recognized and we sold it probably too early. We always sell too early is my refrain.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

You're going to do really well owning a one of one business that costs 20 times your purchase price to replace that can, by the way, hold nearly infinite leverage in it. That purchase looked like an LBO from 1975. It looked like American Greetings LBO. It's like very little equity put up relative to the total quantum of leverage.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

You're going to do really well owning a one of one business that costs 20 times your purchase price to replace that can, by the way, hold nearly infinite leverage in it. That purchase looked like an LBO from 1975. It looked like American Greetings LBO. It's like very little equity put up relative to the total quantum of leverage.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

So I think it's really recognizing replacement cost, how important it is to a downstream system, how we train and equip the forces, right? How important is it to the projection of force? And my goal is I want to be a supplier to everyone. We own a set of businesses right now where Andrel's a customer. Northrup's a customer. I want to get as close to the physics that won't change.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

So I think it's really recognizing replacement cost, how important it is to a downstream system, how we train and equip the forces, right? How important is it to the projection of force? And my goal is I want to be a supplier to everyone. We own a set of businesses right now where Andrel's a customer. Northrup's a customer. I want to get as close to the physics that won't change.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

That way I'm not choosing size. I'm not making a value judgment on the future because it's hard to change the physics. Ergo, get closer to the molecule. My top of the mountain is to be as close to the molecule as possible. There may be new molecules, but the reality is it's usually engineering. It's usually engineering downstream.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

That way I'm not choosing size. I'm not making a value judgment on the future because it's hard to change the physics. Ergo, get closer to the molecule. My top of the mountain is to be as close to the molecule as possible. There may be new molecules, but the reality is it's usually engineering. It's usually engineering downstream.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so if I can be close to the molecule and have some value-added engineering around it, especially if I'm in the front office of the department, there's tons of money that's been made in the back office, in the business mission area. Tons of money. There are private equity firms that focus on that complex that have aggregated 100 billion of AUM. It's amazing to me.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so if I can be close to the molecule and have some value-added engineering around it, especially if I'm in the front office of the department, there's tons of money that's been made in the back office, in the business mission area. Tons of money. There are private equity firms that focus on that complex that have aggregated 100 billion of AUM. It's amazing to me.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And that are doing the non-kinetic activities. I understand that if you view yourself as an asset gatherer, you won't do anything that will infringe on your ability to gather assets. And so there's a whole host of pension plans and endowments and all these things all over the world, especially in Europe, that will not give you money if you make anything that ultimately kills someone.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And that are doing the non-kinetic activities. I understand that if you view yourself as an asset gatherer, you won't do anything that will infringe on your ability to gather assets. And so there's a whole host of pension plans and endowments and all these things all over the world, especially in Europe, that will not give you money if you make anything that ultimately kills someone.