Darren Farber

If everyone believed that we had the ability to stop the PLA from crossing the Taiwanese Strait, it was a nothing burger for us, we'd do it. Of course, we'd have the will because it's an easy win. And it's the tough win. It would just be too hard for us relative to the quantum of capability that they've been stockpiling through the express purpose.

If everyone believed that we had the ability to stop the PLA from crossing the Taiwanese Strait, it was a nothing burger for us, we'd do it. Of course, we'd have the will because it's an easy win. And it's the tough win. It would just be too hard for us relative to the quantum of capability that they've been stockpiling through the express purpose.

But we've learned a lot in counterinsurgency over the years. How long did the Afghan contingency take for us to win the war part? Two weeks? What was the Iraq part? One week? Supply chain. Yeah, it was the nation state activity after. China can bomb Taiwan into oblivion.

But we've learned a lot in counterinsurgency over the years. How long did the Afghan contingency take for us to win the war part? Two weeks? What was the Iraq part? One week? Supply chain. Yeah, it was the nation state activity after. China can bomb Taiwan into oblivion.

But if they want to take it over and they want the vast majority of people to stay alive, well, the terrain of Taiwan is spectacular for insurgency. And one of the most compelling plans I saw was the Taiwanese look at America and go, America can never be overtaken because there's anywhere from three to 600 million guns in the country. How would you take over the country functionally?

But if they want to take it over and they want the vast majority of people to stay alive, well, the terrain of Taiwan is spectacular for insurgency. And one of the most compelling plans I saw was the Taiwanese look at America and go, America can never be overtaken because there's anywhere from three to 600 million guns in the country. How would you take over the country functionally?

And the Taiwanese have a very good healthcare system and safety net to prevent, derange people from getting firearms. And my view is, is that A firearm culture there may be already taking hold. And if every adult had a long rifle, I don't know how the Chinese would take over that island. But it wouldn't be warfare like you and I are thinking of. Generals sitting at tables. It would be insurgency.

And the Taiwanese have a very good healthcare system and safety net to prevent, derange people from getting firearms. And my view is, is that A firearm culture there may be already taking hold. And if every adult had a long rifle, I don't know how the Chinese would take over that island. But it wouldn't be warfare like you and I are thinking of. Generals sitting at tables. It would be insurgency.

small groups, exactly how the Taliban ground us down, hiding in plain sight. And that terrain, by the way, is just as hard. It's very mountainous, very lush. So if the Chinese are committed to killing everyone on the island, well, then there's something to defend. They can liquefy the island and they can roll in after the nuclear fallout and they can figure it out.

small groups, exactly how the Taliban ground us down, hiding in plain sight. And that terrain, by the way, is just as hard. It's very mountainous, very lush. So if the Chinese are committed to killing everyone on the island, well, then there's something to defend. They can liquefy the island and they can roll in after the nuclear fallout and they can figure it out.

But if they want to take it over and the Taiwanese are prepared to fight, I think it's a perfect setup for insurgency. We spent 20 years getting ground down with enormous military capability against a completely underfunded insurgency. And so if the population is prepared, how are you going to separate someone that's for the PRC from someone that isn't in Taiwan? Forget it.

But if they want to take it over and the Taiwanese are prepared to fight, I think it's a perfect setup for insurgency. We spent 20 years getting ground down with enormous military capability against a completely underfunded insurgency. And so if the population is prepared, how are you going to separate someone that's for the PRC from someone that isn't in Taiwan? Forget it.

And if the population supports the activity, I think you could see something very interesting. Obviously, supply lines would become a big challenge and there's a ring that you can create around the island over time or starve it out.

And if the population supports the activity, I think you could see something very interesting. Obviously, supply lines would become a big challenge and there's a ring that you can create around the island over time or starve it out.

I don't think in terms of binary outcomes. Obviously, there's the one outcome where it's some combination of a false flag activity. It's saying, oh, Taiwan, through an inadvertent exercise, sunk a frigate of ours, and we're bringing in a cooperative peacekeeping force to ensure that this doesn't get out of hand and then surreptitiously take over the government or something like that.

I don't think in terms of binary outcomes. Obviously, there's the one outcome where it's some combination of a false flag activity. It's saying, oh, Taiwan, through an inadvertent exercise, sunk a frigate of ours, and we're bringing in a cooperative peacekeeping force to ensure that this doesn't get out of hand and then surreptitiously take over the government or something like that.

I think they're much more inclined for an activity like this where it's ambiguous as to what's happening. I think that really works in their favor. I think something that's just overt command and control war wouldn't be in keeping with their strategy. I mean, they could do that probability distribution as well. I don't think it's as likely.

I think they're much more inclined for an activity like this where it's ambiguous as to what's happening. I think that really works in their favor. I think something that's just overt command and control war wouldn't be in keeping with their strategy. I mean, they could do that probability distribution as well. I don't think it's as likely.

And then there's one theory that's gaining more traction is that the Taiwanese government can be co-opted successfully, right? And so a bullet doesn't need to be fired. A lot of Taiwanese have second passports and places to go. So the question is, what's left as it gets hotter and hotter? And could the political structure be co-opted with a combination of a carrot and a stick?

And then there's one theory that's gaining more traction is that the Taiwanese government can be co-opted successfully, right? And so a bullet doesn't need to be fired. A lot of Taiwanese have second passports and places to go. So the question is, what's left as it gets hotter and hotter? And could the political structure be co-opted with a combination of a carrot and a stick?