David Clark

Between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exit started at $10 billion.

We updated those numbers in February this year, $20 billion.

We just updated them yesterday.

It's now at $32 billion.

So we've 10x'd.

over the space of kind of 24 months.

And how much of that do you think is going to be native kind of AI applications?

Because I kind of always go back to Chris Dixon's point around like the first three or four years, you kind of see these skeuomorphic applications.

And we've seen that at the minute, most people are using AI to do their existing job in a way that's more efficient, faster, cheaper.

But we're kind of starting to see some of the native applications come in with particularly around agentic AI.

How do you think that alters the landscape?

It's like... How much more quickly they could grow.

When I think of our priors sort of 12 months ago, there's a couple of things that I think have kind of changed.

One's been reinforced, which was we always thought that the largest companies were going to continue to be an order of magnitude larger than we'd seen in prior cycles.

Yes.

And if anything, that's accelerating.

So you've put out some data around the size of a top 1% exit doubling every five years or so.

So between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exit started at $10 billion.

We updated those numbers in February this year.

And a top 1% exit for 25 in the first two months of 26 was then $20 billion.