David Frum

And Obama...

in the end, decided, oh, Biden was not the person he wanted.

He wanted Hillary Clinton.

And Obama maneuvered the party to deter Biden from seeking the nomination and to support Hillary Clinton in getting the nomination.

That could happen again.

So Vance, goal number one, do not be so anti-Iran that Donald Trump gets mad at him and endorses Rubio instead of Vance, as Trump keeps threatening to.

Goal number two,

Vance believes this war is not going to go well.

And Vance intends to run against the war sometimes.

And Vance is also very aware of the far right that thinks all of American foreign policy is a Jewish plot, but Iran is especially a Jewish plot.

And that element of the Republican Party is very important to Vance, and he wants to keep on their good side.

I don't know why.

I don't know how important they are, but he thinks they're important.

So his goal is, one, to signal to the conspiratorial anti-Semitic wing of the party, I'm with you.

I want your support.

I agree with you.

I am opposed to the Iran war, and I blame Benjamin Netanyahu for the war.

but not to do so in such a way that Trump endorses Rubio over Vance, and that's it.

He is indifferent to the Middle East.

He is indifferent to America's strategic posture in the world.