David Frum

Everyone's aware of the price of oil and the price of gasoline because there's one global oil price.

But it's worth remembering that the actual flow of oil, 80% of the oil from the Persian Gulf goes to Asia.

The United States is now, again, the largest producer of oil in the world.

North America, US plus Canada, produce about 25% of all the world's oil and even more of the world's natural gas.

And the United States imports a little from Canada.

It imports a little from some other places, because there are particular kinds of oil that don't come from the United States.

And in turn, America exports oil.

But America is a net exporter.

So you're going to have higher prices, but there's no risk of a supply shortage in the United States.

But in Asia, South Korea, Japan, China too, there are real risks of outright shortage because the tankers that are expected and that are not making their way are on their way to Asian markets in 80% of cases.

So the United States is putting a special burden on its Asian allies.

And that's a moment that calls for language of sympathy to stir solidarity.

Because what you're ultimately afraid of is that maybe not Japan, maybe not South Korea, but people like you less, like Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, countries that are important to American strategic planning, but are not really friends of the United States.

You guys are just too unreliable, too flaky, and you never think about our interests.

So why should we think about yours?

No, it is not at all an empty threat.

But it's necessary to understand what the threat is.

It's not that Canada is going to become a Chinese ally.

Geography is geography.

I spent a lot of time on this question.