David George
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And I think when you see major technological shifts, it's very tempting to say, oh my gosh, there is so much economic value that all these companies are going to capture top down.
The reality of doing it is much harder.
And I always say to people, 90% of the technological surplus is going to go to the end users.
Just start with that as the assumption, whether it's consumer, whether it's enterprise.
A funny analogy that I heard from somebody else is how is the steam engine ultimately priced?
It wasn't priced based on replacing 50 laborers.
Competitive forces drove it to a certain price where there was an appropriate return on capital.
But the vast majority of those productivity gains went to the end users of those machines, not the maker of the machines.
So I think something similar will probably happen in the enterprise.
Even with that, you can create the biggest businesses in the world.
So an analogy would be Apple.
What would you pay for your iPhone?
A lot more than I do.
The sky's the limit.
90% consumer surplus is probably low if the iPhone costs a thousand bucks or something like that.
So I'd say the same for Google.
I'd say the same for Facebook.
It's going to happen in consumer.
Consumers are going to be the ones who realize the surplus.
The same is going to happen in business, but I think the next generation of business companies can still be much bigger than the previous generation of companies given the capability gains.