David George

But maybe I'm slightly more skeptical about what their ultimate business models will be

So one of the really fun topics that people debate with high degrees of confidence that I have very low confidence in is what is the ultimate business models of these companies?

And people put up these super compelling slides that are like, hey, you know, the whole software industry is only $400 billion, but look at how big white collar labor is.

And we're going to go get a ton of that.

And to me, that's a little bit hand wavy.

So there's a couple of areas where the business model has progressed in a compelling way to go tackle that directly.

So customer support is one

But because there's a very discreet task with very simple completion analysis that you can do, it's simple to price it on that.

You can shift the business model from a seed-based thing for Zendesk or something to a new business model where if you successfully complete the task, you can charge on that.

Maybe the next furthest developed area is coding, but it's not completion of a task.

It's consumption driven.

And especially in the developer world, that whole world is used to paying things on consumption.

It's how it has all shifted over the last 10 years.

Everything else, I think it's pretty TBD.

It's going to be very hard

And I think when you see major technological shifts, it's very tempting to say, oh my gosh, there is so much economic value that all these companies are going to capture top down.

The reality of doing it is much harder.

And I always say to people, 90% of the technological surplus is going to go to the end users.

Just start with that as the assumption, whether it's consumer, whether it's enterprise.

A funny analogy that I heard from somebody else is how is the steam engine ultimately priced?