David Hoffman

forces enter Iran.

That means boots on the ground, does it not?

on probability on PolyMarket for US and Iran ceasefire by a specific date, 60% by June 30th, 47% by May 31st.

So end of May, almost a 50% chance into the summer.

December 31st, a 73% chance.

So, I mean, that's like a 27% chance that this isn't over by the end of this year.

He's also Trump.

We don't really know.

But there's also a question of once you are in it, there are some forces that he doesn't control, of course.

He doesn't control the universe.

Exactly.

Including the Straits of Hormuz.

Yeah.

Looking at some charts, I mean, this is volatile, so things are changing in a hurry, but Brent crude up by 10%.

So this was directly after the speech oil shot up.

Bond markets, the 10-year trend.

bill note, back on its way to $4, or sorry, 4.4% yield, right?

Remember we talked about, I think it was last week, as those yields number, those yield numbers tick up on the 10-year, that's more pressure on Trump.

And

You kind of saw them back in the tariff scare of last year, 4.6%.