David Hoffman

That started to feel very uncomfortable.

And Trump walked back his tariff language.

So this is another pressure on him.

Of course, crypto prices, what are we doing here, man?

So Bitcoin down 4%, ETH down 6%.

Hard to know if that is...

swirled up in all of this or what's going on.

But now the S&P is trading kind of like neutrally.

Is that the case?

I mean, I guess.

It's hard to know what the market is thinking, but there are some forces that have to impact the market, which is like one of which is oil.

And so if Strait of Hormuz is closed for longer, oil prices spike.

Here's an analysis from the Kobayashi letter.

as oil prices rise above 112 per barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained, so if you have that oil price another two months, US CPI inflation will rise to 3.6%.

So energy costs are going to affect inflation.

And of course,

that's going to affect what the Fed does.

Michael Nadeau makes the point that that could spiral into lower growth in the US.

And the possibility of a recession is actually up on the air from like 20% to 36%, according to PolyMarket.

And you also have