David Kelly

That's right.

You end up in an economy that's pretty stable, about 2% growth, no recession really on the horizon.

I think the inflation rate will eventually later this year come down to 2%.

I think the unemployment rate, if anything, will

end up lower than it is now, so maybe at 4% by the end of the year.

It's not brilliant, but it's certainly not bad.

I think a fairly stable, moderate economy is where we are.

I think the history of the 21st century is beware of the shock around the corner, because it's probably something you never even considered.

I think we're seeing so much frenzy in

AI spending and AI infrastructure, that there's some risk from that.

And then there's geopolitical risk.

So there's plenty of things that could go wrong.

But really what I worry about for investors is not so much the economy is going to do something terrible to them.

It's just that something does go wrong, they could get pretty badly hurt.

I think the Fed's going to keep on cutting rates.

It's generally a better than expected report, but I think what it really shows is we have a K-shaped economy and it's sort of a K-shaped CPI report.

The thing that really jumped out at me is, first of all, rental costs coming down.

We've got a

A big change in demographics here, and rental inflation is just going away.

You also saw used vehicle prices fall.