Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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This morning, the focus is on inflation. CPI coming in below expectations. Traders adding to bets for two more rate cuts this year, including one next Wednesday. David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management joins us now for more. David, let's start with the inflation data. Is three the new two? And is it going to stop this Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates?
I think the Fed's going to keep on cutting rates. It's generally a better than expected report, but I think what it really shows is we have a K-shaped economy and it's sort of a K-shaped CPI report. The thing that really jumped out at me is, first of all, rental costs coming down. We've got a A big change in demographics here, and rental inflation is just going away.
You also saw used vehicle prices fall. I thought that was pretty interesting. And then the big thing here is core goods prices outside of food and energy. That's the stuff that should be hit by tariffs. But that's only up two tenths of a percent, up one and a half percent year over year. It is clear that mainstream retailers don't believe they can pass on the tariff increases right now.
And that's what's making this inflation rate a little bit tamer than people feared.
David, doesn't this just justify what the market's already sussed out, which is that inflation fears were overblown earlier this year? The Fed can keep cutting potentially below 3% by the end of next year and that it's not going to cause a huge inflation problem?
Well, I never thought we had a long-term inflation problem, but I think it is still early days on the tariff effects. What's going to happen is, right now, retailers feel like they can't pass on the price increases. But early next year, you're going to have this refund bonanza.
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Chapter 2: What insights does David Kelly share about the recent CPI report?
Income tax refund per household we believe is going to be over $4,000. Last year it was $3,200. And that is the exact time when retailers are going to feel like they can pass on these tariff increases. So I do think we've got a little bit of a spurt in tariff inflation still to come.
But then, you know, if nothing else happens, there isn't a lot of momentum in this economy and it'll slow down again and it'll cool down again. I don't think we've got a long term inflation problem. My real question is, given how bubbly financial markets are, do you really need the Federal Reserve adding more liquidity to the party right now?
Or should they just, you know, hang on in there and say this is enough liquidity?
What are you saying or what are you seeing that really is bubbly given the fact that earnings have exceeded expectations, the forecasts have exceeded expectations, and we're likely to see more of the same next week with the tech earnings?
Well, valuations are extremely high. Obviously, a lot of it's concentrated in the mega cap stocks, but also profits as a share of GDP are extraordinarily high. Overall, the total value of all US market cap is about 365% of GDP right now.
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Chapter 3: How does David Kelly interpret the current inflation data?
It was about 212% before the tech bubble burst back in 2000. It was 87% before the 87 stock market crash. You know, it's leverage upon leverage. High P.E. ratios on a very high level of earnings relative to GDP. Now, I still think this is a very good economy for equities, but I wouldn't say that you could call the market depressed at this stage.
I think that, you know, one of the dangers here is that everybody gets out over their skis and then you have a significant market correction or a bear market.
So are you talking about potentially if the Fed is cutting into strength, they'll be making an error this month?
Yeah, because it's a different economy. And we keep on talking about, oh, the Fed's going to tighten to lower inflation. Forget about it. The Federal Reserve's short-term interest rates are not impacting growth. They're not impacting inflation, but they are impacting financial markets. And the big problem that we've had in this
century of the 2000s hasn't been cpi inflation getting getting out of hand it's asset bubbles you know whether it's housing bubbles or or tech bubbles and the federal reserve should not be in the business of blowing up bubbles so i think they should you know just take it easy i don't mind if they cut rates a little bit here but i certainly would have a problem if they cut rates below what they think neutral is if the economy is you know is not threatened by recession because we are we are seeing
money go into financial markets, go into financial assets and just not come out. And it's sort of it's kind of like a stuck valve. And the more money goes in, the more this market just seems to accelerate upon itself.
And David, we asked Governor Waller this question when he was on the program last week.
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Chapter 4: What implications does rental cost reduction have on inflation?
We asked whether he was getting lulled into kind of interest rates and potentially juicing financial markets. David, do you think there's a problem with their interpretation of the dual mandate or just the dual mandate?
I think the dual mandate itself, I think that Congress needs to recognize, they need to recognize that monetary policy has significant impacts on financial conditions and therefore maintaining stable financial conditions should be part of the goal.
It's kind of like with the ECB, who for years decided they weren't supposed to intervene if one particular country got into significant economic distress and destabilized the euro system. And then finally Mario Draghi said, look, if Greece is a problem, we've got to do something about Greece. Well, this is...
A similar situation where the mandate needs to be expanded a little to recognize the impact of Fed policy on financial and other asset price bubbles to try to prevent bubbles or busts. Because, of course, that's what a bubble creates, a bust. You want to have financial market stability, not just economic stability. And I think the Federal Reserve can have an impact on that.
David, this was thoughtful. We appreciate your time. David Kelly there of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. I'm Carol Masser.
And I'm Tim Stenevek, inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast.
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Chapter 5: How are core goods prices affecting inflation expectations?
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