David Kipping

Now let's say a pilot, one in every 10,000 hours that they fly, they make a mistake.

They misidentify a balloon for UAP or whatever it is.

One in 10,000.

That's an incredibly low, by the way, error rate to have.

But even then, you'd end up with 560 UAPs a year made that way.

All spurious, all not real, just from human error.

So the only way, and that's actually pretty similar to Project Blue, but Project Blue found about 742 per year was being reported.

So, you know, I made that number up, one in 10,000.

But we need to know what that number is.

If it turns out there's an excess, like the error rate is 100,000, then that Project Blue number is super interesting.

And it would be an excess.

And we'd say we've detected something.

There's a real anomaly here that we have to look at.

But the problem is we don't know what that number is.

I mean, you'd have to somehow put these pilots in like simulators or something where you have complete control conditions for thousands of hours and somehow test how often do they make these mistakes.

Yeah, but even so, I'm just giving you sort of ballpark.

I mean, the NASA UAP task force was similar kind of numbers.

You're getting like hundreds per year of these sorts of events, right?

I don't think that's a crazy number to throw around.

So the whole point is that whatever numbers you choose...