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David McCloskey

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1821 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Yes.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And you came back two, three hours later.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

If you wanted to read everything that had come in, you would have to spend like the rest of your day just getting caught up on the reading because there was just so much stuff there.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

that would come in.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And in a situation like this, where the questions that policymakers are asking, because, you know, everything ladders up inside the CIA and inside the U.S.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

intelligence community to the production of the president's daily brief, the PDB.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And so the big questions, right, that the analysts are being asked are usually in a fast moving situation like this going to go into a PDB article at some point.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

You could be asked anything from

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

what's going on with this or that military or security unit, you know, all the way up to how stable is the Islamic Republic.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

You sort of have to get caught up on that reading all the time.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And so what ends up happening is you're just, you're overloaded, right?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

You're absolutely overloaded as an analyst in this situation.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And, you know, the big questions that you're being asked, how long can this government hold on?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

That's going to be the big one.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Two, what are the scenarios for how this plays out?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Because a smart policymaker wants to understand or have a sense of, well, are there three or four different versions of the world that come out of this and how might I prepare for each of them, right?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And then I think the third one, which is more of a policy question, sort of gets into this, I don't know, this sort of gray area where how does a CIA analyst respond to a question like this is, what can we do to shape these scenarios?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

How might we affect the outcome?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

of what's going on in Iran.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And these were the exact questions that we got on Syria.