David McCloskey

So you have this public kind of political view.

Now-

Gordon, I don't observe your private view.

I don't know what that is.

I observe your public view of the situation, right?

And we all have these public views because they provide some kind of benefit to us, right?

The private views can shift and do shift without anyone knowing that they've actually shifted.

In this case, could shift to the Islamic Republic of Iran is illegitimate and there actually is something illegal.

that I can do about this.

I can get involved in a protest.

I could pick up a weapon.

Or just go out on the streets.

And so that shift, that shift in private views, basically what starts you down a path toward a tipping point, or what Timur Karan calls this revolutionary bandwagon.

So the critical thing here is

Any major shift in public views, by definition, it has to be surprising, right?

So if everybody knew that some popular hidden view was popular, then the public view would have already shifted.

And so by definition, you can't predict it.

Let's say you're the agency you're looking for.

What are the signposts of a coming revolution in Iran?

You basically would have to understand the point at which millions of people