David Pakman

It's it.

You almost always have a disastrous next election when you go into it with those sorts of numbers.

The next election happens to be a midterm where Trump is not on the ballot, but it is a referendum of sorts on the sitting president.

Now, there's another aspect to this that I do think is really important to consider.

which is that the worse these numbers get,

On the one hand, the more likely it is Republicans get absolutely destroyed in the midterms, which would be great.

But the more Trump will be incentivized to pull out all the stops to try to force his way into Republicans not getting crushed that badly.

And we mean, listen, we've done so many segments on the techniques that they're trying to use.

And I believe there will be an election the whole he'll cancel the election.

He may want to cancel the election and he may even allude to, well, we've got an emergency this or that.

I believe the election will happen because the way it works is that states run their elections and therefore I just I think legally it would be really difficult for Trump to cancel them.

But the worse the numbers look and the more embarrassing the defeat Trump is worried about, the more he's going to go out of his way to try to to try to.

D register people, reduce voting hours, all of the things that we've been tracking now for 15 years.

It is also the case.

Trump's defenders will say it, that there is still a really strong base of support for Trump.

And I don't mean that the number of people supporting him hasn't shrunk.

It has.

But the people who do support him, especially within the Republican Party and those who consider themselves MAGA, the MAGA people still almost overwhelmingly support Donald Trump.

That is not the group that tends to decide the midterms.

So both things can be true.