David Pakman

Midterms are decided at the margins.

Independents play a major role.

Who decides to vote plays a major role.

Moderate voters and people who might lean one way or the other.

But Trump's hardcore base of support still does exist.

So the pattern here is that Trump's numbers keep getting worse.

and his willingness to try to figure out a way to save the midterms seems to grow.

The other thing I think is relevant historically is that weakness outside of your base and no real path to expanding your midterm electorate, which is where Trump is right now, tends to lead to complete and total disaster.

And if that trend continues,

everything will become difficult for Trump.

And then if he does lose control of the House, the rest of Trump's presidency is going to be in the toilet.

The political narrative will shift.

It's going to be damage control.

It's going to be investigations and subpoenas and oversight.

And when the president is as uninterested in really the role of the presidency.

And what I mean by that is Trump doesn't like work.

Trump wants to get prizes and he's found a lot of people more than willing to give him bogus and meaningless prizes.

Trump likes adulation.

He likes rallies where people are cheering for him.

The FIFA Peace Prize and the America First Prize and the Disney Big Boy President Prize and whatever else.