David Pakman

And then Trump says, Hey, NATO, they need to come to our defense by which he meant we created a mess in the straight of Hormuz.

Now there's consequences.

Please come and help.

Now, of course, article five doesn't cover that scenario.

Article five is about attacks on NATO allies, not problems you create in non NATO bodies of water that you then are desperate for help for.

But on the one hand, Trump was saying even our commitment to, to article five for other countries is a question mark.

And then going, forget about article five, come help us in the Strait of Hormuz.

That's crazy when you look at it from, from the point of view of our allies and that has an impact.

Well, if you're asking as to the effect on the November election, it very well could dissipate.

I mean, it's, it's a crazy thing to think of, but, um, primarily I think voters are going to be going off of their perception of how the economy is probably in the four to six weeks before the November election.

Now, this isn't the Iran situation is interesting because it's both foreign policy, but it directly affects the day to day economy of people.

Not to mention there's this ability to compare and contrast.

You know, Donald Trump spent a campaign saying prices on everything will come down and he's talking about the sort of stone that he'll be using on the columns at his ballroom that no one asked for.

The foreign policy decisions which affect oil and gas and through transportation affect everything else that people are paying for.

His actions right now are very much indifferent to the average effect on a family's economy.

But it pains me to say it.

There is this sort of relatively short memory on a lot of this stuff as far as voters are concerned.

And so if gas prices do come back down by November and inflation numbers improve a little bit,

I think there's a good chance that if Trump off ramps here over the next four weeks, what we thought would be 40 60 vote swing in the house of representatives might be much smaller.

Now I still think Democrats take the house regardless, but it might be like a 15 seat swing or something like that.