David Sacks

In any event, what the article says is no one really knows what's going to happen with AI in two years, never mind 20 years.

And so they resort to science fiction writing masquerading as analysis.

And so they resort to science fiction writing masquerading as analysis.

And the author here, Derek Thompson, says that the conversation about AI is really just a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives.

And the author here, Derek Thompson, says that the conversation about AI is really just a marketplace of competing science fiction narratives.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And he says, that's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick, but rather that the level of uncertainty is so high and the quality and supply of real-world, real-time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so paltry that very serious conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical.

And he says, that's not to say I think the technology is a parlor trick, but rather that the level of uncertainty is so high and the quality and supply of real-world, real-time information about AI's macroeconomic effects so paltry that very serious conversations about AI are often more literary than genuinely analytical.

So, in other words, what he's saying is, look, this guy is writing very –

So, in other words, what he's saying is, look, this guy is writing very –

compelling science fiction, but there's no real analytics behind it to defend it.

compelling science fiction, but there's no real analytics behind it to defend it.

And yes, this could happen.

And yes, this could happen.

Here's a prediction market on whether people believe the Citrini report's going to come true, something like 12%.

Here's a prediction market on whether people believe the Citrini report's going to come true, something like 12%.

believe the Citrini scenario is going to happen.

believe the Citrini scenario is going to happen.

But the truth is no one really knows.