All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
28 Feb 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
All right, everybody, welcome back to your favorite podcast, the All In podcast.
Chapter 2: What is Claude's hit list and how does it relate to the SaaS crash?
Today, we have a conspiracy corner episode for you. We're going to go over the 9-11 inside job. We're going over Flat Earth, JFK assassination. It's going to be all conspiracy all the time after our amazing blockbuster episode during Ski Week. We're going all conspiracy here. Our guest today, Alex Jones.
How many views did it get? Nine views?
I mean, it's tough when you... Have one out of four besties. It doesn't... Michael Tracy is on standby.
Not true. I can carry an episode for at least 400,000 views.
I mean, you might. You might. I like your... Hey, for people who don't know, Chamath has his own YouTube channel. He's got his escape hatch for when this train wreck burns to the ground. He started his own YouTube channel. He's hedging his bets. Freberg's working on his solo project. Everybody's doing solo project. The band's got a lot of solo projects.
The Beatles are experimenting.
The Beatles are experimenting. They're experimenting. We got a little Yoko Ono situation going on here. You know what the number one topic for this show was by the all-in AI bot, Sax?
What's up?
The number one was Dario versus Hegseth.
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Chapter 3: Why are Doomer narratives gaining popularity and what new AI jobs are emerging?
The Department of War versus Anthropic was the number one topic selected by our AI bot. As a programming note for folks, that decision will be made end of the day Friday when this podcast comes out. So we will talk about it next week, but let's get to work. We've got a full docket. The Claude Kill List has expanded and an AI fan fiction sub stack tanked your 401k on Monday. Let's get into it.
Anthropic's generational run continues. They're now three for three. in tanking different market sectors in February. Congratulations.
Chapter 4: What is the Rate Payer Protection Pledge and why is there opposition to datacenters?
This is like they took the mantle from Brad Gerstner tanking the market. The anthropic shit list. It is. February 3rd, Anthropic announces, hey, we got a legal plug in for Claude. Cowork. Thompson Reuters, LexisNexis, LegalZoom, all down at least 10% since February 3rd. Then on February 20th, Cloud Code Security is announced. In a limited research preview, stocks tank again.
CrowdTry, CloudFare, Okta, all down. Then... February 23, anthropic announces Claude can modernize COBOL databases. If you don't know COBOL, that's the like oldest coding language in the world.
Chapter 5: What were the reactions to the State of the Union address?
That's where Saxon learned code when he was in college in the 70s. It's used for banking, payroll, government, healthcare, healthcare runs 95% of ATMs. in the US and it powers Social Security payments. 85% of all Cold War code runs on IBM machines. So IBM decided they would tank 13% on Monday, their worst day since $2,031 billion in market cap losses.
So let's stop here before I get into the fanfiction piece. What's your take here of what's happening in the market, Shamath? Is this simply people are looking for an excuse to trim their positions because things have been top-ticking, all-time highs, and people are just looking for an excuse? Or is this reality?
Is this the go-forward reality that AI is going to compress these kind of stocks because it solves a lot of problems?
I'm going to give you two explanations.
Chapter 6: How might Yamanaka Factors lead to a cure for blindness?
I don't know what percentage I would allocate across the two, but I think one is tactical and one is much more strategic, but I think both are happening. The tactical one is that we're at a moment in time where a lot of the smart money hedge funds are starting to massively de-gross. And what that means is they're trimming a lot of positions and they're just taking on a lot less risk.
Why, I don't exactly know. It could be motivated by the second thing that I'm going to talk about. But the point is, in a de-grossing cycle,
Chapter 7: What impact did SCOTUS's ruling on tariffs have on Trump's policies?
you tend to be trimming risk and making your position sizes much smaller. So the longs become less long, the shorts become less short and you just shrink. And so there's just general downward pressure. That is a clear behavior right now. But I think the structural change is the more important one. And this is sort of what I talked about this morning. In a normal functioning market,
What we are always debating is when a set of cash flows go from becoming highly confident to less highly confident. It's a when conversation. So when will Coca-Cola's cash flows be impacted? When will Eli Lilly's cash flows be impacted? When will Meta's cash flows be impacted? And the answer to the when gets translated by the public markets into three things.
your price to earnings multiple, where if you invert that number, what that is equivalent to is the yield on the money that you get. So if you're 20 times PE, that's a 5% yield. The second is a revenue multiple.
And the third is what's called your weighted average cost of capital, which is to say, if you look at the next 20 to 30 years of earnings, and you want to figure out what that is worth today, You have to discount all of these back and you have to assume a percentage of interest effectively that it takes to get there.
And the basic math of this is that when you have a high whack, it's called, you're massively discounting these cash flows. When you have a low whack, you're assuming that these things are very durable. Okay, so what is happening? We used to debate when. This is no longer a when moment. The market is very much in an if mode. are these cash flows durable at all?
Could they fall off a cliff in year three? Is there some AI model that's gonna come around the corner and obliterate this business without me knowing it? And because they've shifted into this if mindset, your risk becomes totally different. You have this event risk that you don't know how to price. And whenever the market shifts into that mode,
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Chapter 8: How are tariffs affecting the economy and what are the implications?
What you see are that the holders of those equities want a massive margin of safety. What does that mean? They have to take PEs way down. If you used to trade at 40, you should trade at 20. If you used to trade at 20, you should trade at 10. They take revenue multiples down. You used to trade at 10 times revenue, now you're gonna trade at three times. You take the WAC way up.
Used to be a 6% discounted weighted average cost of capital. You know what? I'm taking you to 12 or 13. That's the market's way of saying, I'm now debating if these things will even exist. And so I need to give myself a huge buffer to own this stuff. That's what's happening right now. It has a lot of ripple effects that we can talk about. Freeberg and I have talked about this a lot.
The most obvious impact is how these tech companies recruit and retain talent because the biggest thing that it starts to eat into are the cash flows of a business, which really directly tied to stock-based comp and all this other stuff. But let me just stop there. So we have moved away from a when to now an if, and I think that that is a very smart question to be asking.
The answer may be for many of these companies that they will survive, but we don't know how long, and until that becomes clearer, you have to give yourself room to be wrong. You said when, then if, did you mean if? No, no, no, no. To when? We've always debated when. When will these cash flows disappear? Now it's like, will they even exist?
Got it, okay. So the second part of this story, Friedberg and Sachs, is that a sub-stack post Fan fiction taking place in the fictional 2028 global intelligence crisis went mega viral, 28 million views on X. It was posted Sunday night. It made the market tank on Monday. In this fictional Substack post, the author said there's going to be essentially a death spiral that happens because of AI.
How does that work? Well, first, companies embrace AI. Everything goes right. They're able to cut staff. Their margins go up, similar to how Amazon has
you know, trimmed their white collar staff, then they're so successful at this that they lose their customer base, because consumers don't have discretionary funding to spend, then the creates a debt spiral where the companies keep deploying AI to try to hit the margins cutting staff and the entire economy collapses, Dr. Doom level stuff, unemployment at 10% S&P goes down from 38% highs
After this piece came out, which speculated that agents would get rid of all the 3% interchange fees and move everybody to settle transactions on stable coins, all the financial stocks got hit on Monday. Amex down 8%, Capital One down 8%, MasterCard 6% fees of 4%, yada, yada. Finally, this piece got a lot of pushback.
There was a silly piece in it or a section in it where they said AI agents would vibe code their way to displacing DoorDash And that's kind of silly if anybody's run a network-based business knows. Sax, I assume you read this piece or at least saw the fallout from it. What's your take? And then we'll go to you, Friedberg.
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