David Shor

there's an enormous amount of status quo bias in politics. Campaigning on big policy changes, you know, can be pretty unpopular. But I think, you know, the way to thread the needle is that this, what this is really saying is that voters were very angry about the state of things. And what they wanted tonally was someone who acknowledged that anger.

there's an enormous amount of status quo bias in politics. Campaigning on big policy changes, you know, can be pretty unpopular. But I think, you know, the way to thread the needle is that this, what this is really saying is that voters were very angry about the state of things. And what they wanted tonally was someone who acknowledged that anger.

Because, you know, Ruben Gallego did a lot of criticism of the status quo and was able to outperform.

Because, you know, Ruben Gallego did a lot of criticism of the status quo and was able to outperform.

When people think about moderates, they think of somebody like Joe Manchin, someone who's just like down the line on everything. And, you know, the reality, I think that's an accurate description of what highly educated moderates are like. But most low socioeconomic status moderates, they're very extreme on some issues. They're very conservative on other issues.

When people think about moderates, they think of somebody like Joe Manchin, someone who's just like down the line on everything. And, you know, the reality, I think that's an accurate description of what highly educated moderates are like. But most low socioeconomic status moderates, they're very extreme on some issues. They're very conservative on other issues.

When you think of that, it's maybe less surprising that a lot of them like

When you think of that, it's maybe less surprising that a lot of them like

That's exactly right. And, you know, the way I like to put that in math terms, you know, the issue correlations for highly educated people are just a lot higher than they are.

That's exactly right. And, you know, the way I like to put that in math terms, you know, the issue correlations for highly educated people are just a lot higher than they are.

All right, but I'm glad we started talking about ideology because that dovetails to the next slide. Here, we just ask for each of the candidates, do you think this candidate was more liberal than me, more conservative than me, or close to my views?

All right, but I'm glad we started talking about ideology because that dovetails to the next slide. Here, we just ask for each of the candidates, do you think this candidate was more liberal than me, more conservative than me, or close to my views?

You know, 49% of voters said that Kamala Harris was more liberal than me, while only 39% of voters said that Donald Trump was more conservative than me. And so there was this big difference ideological perception gap where a lot of voters saw Donald Trump as more moderate than Kamala Harris.

You know, 49% of voters said that Kamala Harris was more liberal than me, while only 39% of voters said that Donald Trump was more conservative than me. And so there was this big difference ideological perception gap where a lot of voters saw Donald Trump as more moderate than Kamala Harris.

So in 2016, it looked fairly similar to this. In 2020, perceptions of Donald Trump being too extreme went up relative to 2016, and perceptions of the Democratic candidate being too extreme went down from 2016 to 2020. Now, you know, that I think wasn't a property of Joe Biden per se. Like, obviously, him being moderate was a big part of his brand at that time.

So in 2016, it looked fairly similar to this. In 2020, perceptions of Donald Trump being too extreme went up relative to 2016, and perceptions of the Democratic candidate being too extreme went down from 2016 to 2020. Now, you know, that I think wasn't a property of Joe Biden per se. Like, obviously, him being moderate was a big part of his brand at that time.

But, you know, in our polling, you know, we would ask, you know, do you think that Joe Biden is too liberal or too conservative or whatever? And we saw that over the course of 2021, as his approval ratings dipped, the perception that he was too liberal also went up.

But, you know, in our polling, you know, we would ask, you know, do you think that Joe Biden is too liberal or too conservative or whatever? And we saw that over the course of 2021, as his approval ratings dipped, the perception that he was too liberal also went up.

That eroded. But, you know, the thing I want to say here before... I move on is I'm really not trying to beat up on Kamala Harris here.

That eroded. But, you know, the thing I want to say here before... I move on is I'm really not trying to beat up on Kamala Harris here.